APOLOGIES

We ask our readers for excuses, due to the mistakes that they could find in the translation of this page. This due to the fact that the original blog is in Spanish.The translation is done by a automatic translator and some properness of the author.If you want to know the original blog:
http: // www.arenabursatil.blogspot.com/

TOPICS

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

ITS TIME TO BUY RINO: ANOTHER ORGANIZED SHORT ATTACK

By: Sebastian Toro

Is something like a trend.....the shorts attacks in chinese companies are something so predictable that is like a trend,

Today muddy waters make a bearish report on RINO saying that the company is a fraud. By the way who the f... are muddy waters???

well muddy waters is a nobody web page, without history, without reputation....is a web page created something like 6 months ago with the only purpose to short stocks and then make an attack on them to win a profit.

Have you seen Wall street 2 the movie? well its look like this guys saw that movie and learn to short stocks and then create panic. (the sec should do something about this shaddy people)

The first report of this muddy waters dubious page was an attack on ONP---- the company has a big hit that day, but after that the company and some wall street serious investors and analyst post some articles defending the company and the result was that the company really exists and also the company recover the price since the malicious attack by muddy water.

This is a post of that attack:

"Yet, last week, a newly created website for a company called Muddy Waters published its first-ever report, suggesting that ONP was a fraud. Last Thursday, the stock lost 38% of its value in the first hour of trading. A couple of readers sent me emails describing how their brokers sold all ONP stock on Thursday, because they were purchased on margin. This accelerated the rapid price drop.

However, on Friday, 6 million shares were traded and the stock gained over 50% after a number of articles (including one by Rick Pearson and one by me, both published on TheStreet) questioning the validity of Muddy Waters' claims.

On Tuesday morning this week, ONP released a comprehensive press release, rebutting the vast majority of Muddy Waters' allegations. The response was far-reaching and detailed. Since then, Muddy Waters' website(the company published its last comment on Tuesday, ahead of the ONP release), which had been giving daily updates since it first lobbed its accusations against ONP, has been silent."

Well...today the company attack RINO and this is just another malicious short attack. if you take a look at RINO the short interest is high and the stock was heading to 20 so a lot of bear were being slaughtered.

The most funny thing of the muddy waters report was the headline...take a look:

"Use of Muddy Waters LLC’s research is at your own risk" LOL

then the report continue:

" You should assume that as of the publication date of any report, Muddy Waters, LLC (possibly along with or through our members, employees, and / or consultants) along with our clients has a short position in the stock (and / or options of the stock) covered herein, and therefore stands to realize significant gains in the event that the price of the stock declines."
So they are saying you that they WANT to tumble the stock price to make a profit....so they are making a false report, saying that they have shorts in the stock and saying that they want that the stock go down....and people believe in that report??

My friends this is an organized attack just to make the stock price to drop and make a profit!! this is a big buying opportunity! This dubious muddy waters just want to make a profit from your panic, dont believe all their lies.

and the headline continues:

"Following publication of any report, we intend to continue transacting in the securities covered therein.....Waters, LLC has obtained all information contained herein and in reports from sources we believe to be accurate and reliable. However, such information is presented "as is," without warranty of any kind – whether express or implied. Muddy Waters, LLC makes no representation, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any such information or with regard to the results to be obtained from its use. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice"
Now they say that they will trade after the report, and also they say that the information could be false.....so they are saying: hey look this is a false report, we are short, we want to create panic.....and the people believe that....Well i dont believe in any of those lies....

RINO is a great company they will be reporting earnings next monday and soon they will defend against this malicious attacks. dont sell your shares, dont believe in this organized attacks.

At the current price (13usd) the company is trading at 5.7x Earnings and 1.5x their book value. This is a very cheap company, buying at this prices its a bargain and a big opportunity.

RINO isnt an OTC company they trade on Nasdaq, they have their auditors and they have a real and a profitable bussiness........and who is muddy waters?? just a company that trade shorts positions and create panic.

The institutional holders of RINO stocks are UBS, Bank of america, Deustche Bank, barclays and credit suisse beside others....

Just the last quarter Deustche Bank increase their positions at RINO by 38%.....they know what they are buying, they are a serious company and not an scam like muddy waters.

If you look at my posts i also defend UTA from some attacks some months ago...the share price drop to 3.3 and now is trading at 6.3....so this is almost a 100% gain..the shorts loose, the information was false, and this is just the same...another short organized attack.

So finally, this kinds of attacks has benn common in Chinese small caps, look at UTA and ONP recently attacked and both regain their prices before the attack, both were real companies and now the shorts are losing big money there. Rino its the same a very interestig company, at a very good price and in my opinion this attack is just a big buying opportunity that im going to take advantage and i hope that the market does that too.

Best regards.

LEER MAS...

Thursday, October 14, 2010

ANOTHER REASON TO BUY UNIVERSAL TRAVEL GROUP...LOTS OF SHORTS LOSING

Well i find another reason to buy some shares of UTA.....

Since the last attack from hempton the company only have a few shares in short:

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?sym......

Before hempton lies, UTA only have something like 237,210 shares in short....

But before hempton attack the short interest just fire up and since the attack the short interest raise to 1,520,918.......and thats a lot of shorts rigth?

Well here comes the interesting part.....When the attack came, the stock hits 3.25usd...at that moment shorts began to attack based only in hempton lies.....o yeah go short because a guy says so......yeah go short because a blogger who admit is short says the company is bad.....well today the shares are trading at 4.5usd....so the most part of this shorts are losing money today, scared as hell because the stock is rising and asking his short master hempton whats is going on.......

But this get better!! yesterday the company files a SEC filing saying that an individual has bought 7% of the company!! yes you hear rigth, George Valente has taken a big position at UTA and i think that hes buying even more and doesnt has plans to sell in the short term.... So imagine...you short a stock as hell because a dubios blogger says so, but a big buyer who want a big position at the company buys all of them!!....So you are selling and the counterpart is a big player taking positions at the company....if i were short i will be worried....

And just put together the pieces......UTA make a movement to protect the board from a takeover.....then a big player buys 7% of the company and with that you have a lot to think about.....and a lot of shorts are getting trapped because the stock keep raising.....

Well we have our shares and i think this is turning to be a good opportunity and im not mentioning that the company is trading with a FW PE of 3.9.....and below its book value that is something like 5.5usd....have no debt, a lot of cash....just a bargain.....

Well good luck to the shorties......but i think we will continue to go UP

just another opinion.....

Best Regards

Sebastian Toro

LEER MAS...

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

ANOTHER UNEXPECTED MOVE AT UNIVERSAL TRAVEL GROUP!

As most of my readers know i have been keeping an eye in universal travel group recents events and posting some articles about the company:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/a-quotrealquot-visit-to/447974

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/smart-move-from-uta/455584

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/universal-travel-group/456029



Well today we have another unexpected, but positive move on this company----

The company filled to the SEC an SC13G filing:

http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.as......

This filing refer to a new stockholder and we are talking of a big position here taken recently.

Someone by the name of George valente has bought 1,372,000 shares of the company and that equals to the 6.9% of the company......

Interesting history here.....somo dubios blogger publish some malicious comments about the company....the shares prices drop that day but only that day...the stock price has been rising since then and with very big volumes...so it look that the short attack open someone eyes, and that someone happen to buy 7% of the company......

But the history doesnt end here...some weeks later the company hired a new auditor thats is a lot better than the previous one, and this get even better....

A few days ago the company makes a propposal to shield the board from a takeover:

"They want to create a staggered board of directors, which is a classic take-over defense since it makes it far harder for an activist shareholder, or a competing company, to buy shares and then take control of the company. This is because you can't replace the board in one fell swoop, you need you wait and do it in stages every time a new group of directors are scheduled."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/is-short-seller-target-uni......



And finally today, things start to make sense......Now we see one person buying almost 7% of the company in the recent drop and that explain why the company was trying to make that move.

Now theres a new big shareholder in the company that can access to the board and has power in the company...now the takeover begin to make sense....T

his movements are worth the while to keep following this company and in my opinion this is turning to be a great opportunity...

Well best regards to the our new UTA partner and lets hope that the company continue to bring us this good news...

Best regards

Sebastian Toro


share

LEER MAS...

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

UNIVERSAL TRAVEL GROUP: ANOTHER LIE FROM HEMPTON WAS ANSWERED..

share


Well we have been monitoring the behavior of the shares since the attack from this blogger on universal travel group, an another one of his lies was answered by priceline

Hempton says in his blog:

"Alas there were some things we could not find any way to buy with the website at all such as international hotels. That is despite the company announcing a partnership with Agoda (Priceline).

The press release announcing this partnership had contact phone numbers from Universal Travel Group and no contact phone number from Priceline. Anybody want to check with Priceline management how much business Universal Travel are doing with Agoda? "

He claim that UTA doesnt have any partnership with agoda and priceline, and he says that is a lie too and that he cant find anything to prove that....as always the poor old hempton cant find nothing.....i think that he only know how to use google to find videos of lady gaga and pictures from mr bean....at that hes an expert!! but actually find information about company...mmm i really doubt it....actually he dont want to find anything he just want to scare people.

making jokes of zapatero and making videos of youtube he should be an entertainer.....

Well back to bussiness this blogger claim that UTA doesnt have anything with agoda...and guess what?? in the conference call of Priceline this partnership was mentioned and corroborated by the CEO of priceline Jeffery H. Boyd ....

this is what Mr Boyd Says

"Jeffery H. Boyd - President and CEO: With respect to Agoda and Universal Travel, they are building their distribution through other travel websites in the region and I think this just represents their continued progress on that front."

Well... i dont like lies, so you can see the conference call transcript at this link:

http://www.morningstar.com/earnings/16296456-priceline-co......

The part mentioning UTA is at page 3 and 4 in the Q&A part.

i also talk with Matthew tynan at priceline and with Franz nitz at agoda and they also confirm that partnership...

So Universal travel group actually has a partnership with priceline.....that is real and corroborated from the CEO.

So another lie from this dubios blogger is uncovered.....He short UTA and make some malicious comments to make a profit, unfortunately the people actually believe all the bulls.... and is nervous....its a shame that this things happen and a person can make a profit misleading people....

Best regards

LEER MAS...

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

SMART MOVE FROM UTA

share

By: Sebastian Toro

Universal Travel Group (UTA) has been under fire in the last weeks, the fire began when a dubios article that some blogger make a few days ago, but the company and the shares has been recovering from the hit and today they make in my opinion a very smart move.

This blogger claim that their auditors was a scam, or a company that nobody knows.....this is what hempton says in his blog;

"has appointed Goldman Kurland Mohidin ("GKM").... I don't know who GKM are – and I will be thrilled if any of my readers can – off the top of their head – name three other companies they audit. Whatever: I think that GKM can take it as read that this is a higher-than-normal-risk audit assignment. And the first thing to do – confirm the existence of that $43 million cash stash"

Well..... looks like the company hear this and today the hired a very good CPA firm today:

"UTG today announced that its Board of Directors, in consultation with its Audit Committee, has appointed Windes & McClaughry Accountancy Corporation ("Windes") as the Company's independent auditor to replace Goldman Kurland Mohidin, LLP ("GKM"), effective September 30, 2010. "

Windes is a firm with a very good reputation in the US, a firm with more than 80 years of experience and a well know CPA....so know we have to ask this Hempton if maybe "his" friends know who they are......maybe not...they dont know nothing at all...just rumors and dobious intentions, as a short seller he just want to make a profit destroying a company name...

This is a list of the most important CPA:

http://insidepublicaccounting.com/PDF/top200_2010.pdf

and there is Windes at the 6 firm in the West of the US and 123 in the ranking. not bad at all!!

From their website:

"Acknowledged by Inside Public Accounting as one of the Top 25 Best of the Best Accounting Firms in the Country, Windes & McClaughry is a recognized leader in the field of accounting, assurance, tax, and business consulting services. The firm was founded in 1926. Headquartered in Long Beach, California, the firm also has offices in Orange County and the South Bay"

So we are talking of a AAA auditor now, that has a good reputation and this are very great news for the company in the long run.

So this is another good news for the stock

Now they have the work to clean a name that was put in doubt for a malicious short seller and they are doing a great job.

Also they make a conference last week to answer all the questions that this person make and the answer where very clearly and well made.

So i think this is a wonderful move, this is proof of the company in the long run and we think that this is a very good opportunity in the long run.....this is not to mention the very atractive numbers that the company has and the good things about this investment opportunity

PD: there are also rumors of a takever due to the recent movements at the company to shield the board against that..

LEER MAS...

Friday, September 17, 2010

A "REAL" VISIT TO UNIVERSAL TRAVEL GROUP (UTA)

Well, as everyone knows this stock has been hit in the last few days because some commentaries from a blogger with some shaddy or dubious intentions with this stock...actually he says that he have some shorts positions in the stock, so its obvious that he made this to make some profits and scare some investors...

This is not new we have seen a lot of attacks to the chinese stocks, some "shortie" and shaddy character begin with accusations and make some rumors in the market to tumble the shares and make a profit aout of them....just like that...open some shorts, put some blogger to say some shitty coments and thats all.... the stocks just tumble, some people loose their money for shaky hands and the others win...

We have been following UTA for quite some time, and the only thing we can say is that there are some things that i dont like like the last dilution stock issue, but saying that the company doesnt exist or that ther numbers are false, or that the company is "fiction" thats something that only one person with very bad intentions can say.....someone who is profiting for create panic in the market.

Well i have been doing the homework so i enter the UTA home page, i have to tell that i see some problems with the online booking, but i ask some friends in china to call to the toll free number, and guess what? no problems...

The web page also has a chat, where you can talk to an operator and she assist you in the process...guess what? it works perfect!

The company also announce that they have made a partnership with priceline, actually, a subsidiary from this company by the name of "agoda" and that was documented all over the media, but i prefer to write directly to the company......they respond me and confirm that they have the partnership with UTA.....so.... the company isnt fiction as this man say....and the partnership with agoda is also truth. (as you can imagine this man never call to priceline and never make a serious investigation about that)... i have the answer directly in my email if sometime is needed.

Well the history continues...

This so called "fiction" company as say by the malicious trader really exists.....today one person take the time to actually VISIT THE COMPANY for real, so he take a cab and visit the instalations in Shenzen....and guess what? he actually take some pictures and talk to REAL PEOPLE and make his own research for real....not just writting on a blog, but by calling and going there---

I ask him for permision to share his commentaries on the company and the visit and he told me is okay, so i will show you the experience of one person who actually take the time to go to visit the company...(i also attach the link to his pictures so everyone can see it):

"Hi all, So i have decided to head to UTA's calling center today.I showed up unannounced with no appointment.

As I arrived the call center, the phones kept Ringing, Ringing and Ringing. In case some of you are wondering if the company does actually exist, Well, It does.

I was kind of upset because i didnt really get to talk to anyone other then their employees about ticketing so i decided to investigate further and head to their head office. I got of the cab at this district in shenzhen call "NanShan" which means south mountain.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with Shenzhen, NanShan is the newest developing commercial and residential district in all of Shenzhen. The Cab driver confirmed by saying this area is indeed the most expensive in terms of $ per square meter. I walked into a prestige looking commercial complex builidng. Got off the elevator on the 5th floor. Then I saw 2 cuties sitting behind a reception desk.

I approached and said "Can I speak to Jenny?" I waited for about 2 mins and one of them grab the key card and showed me in. As i enter in the company, I see a board room on my left hand side. Where it was filled with employees inside. then I kept walking. 5 seconds later, Jing and Jenny walked out.

They looked at me with the "Who are you eyes" and said Do you have an appointment with us? I answered and said No but i quickly told her what my purpose there was and gave her my business card. In case ur wondering, I work for a start up hedge fund in HK.

Jenny smiled and said right this way. She showed me in her office and said We are just preparing a sales meeting in the board room for the mid-autum festival in China. She said she can give me 20 mins. I thought 2 myself, that's pretty good for showing up unannounced. I was delighted. I quickly started asking her about the short attack, the Online booking business, their growth strategy and the chinese tourism industry as a whole.

After finishing our convo, I asked if i can take some pictures of her and around her office. She said due to the negative press around UTA, it would not be wise. I said ok, I understand. I suspect she was just shy and had to keep a professional image around her employees. However, she did give me her business card and a chinese magazine call "Time Entrepreneur" Where she is the front cover of the September 2010 issuse.

At the Bottom it read: The first Chinese women to be the ceo of a NYSE listed company in 160 years. Before leaving her office, she took me into the board room. As i mentioned earlier, there were all these UTA sales rep there, so i felt a little uncomfortable with all these eyes staring at me. But it also felt good because I was walking beside their Chairwoman.

Jenny then points to a wall shelf in front of me. I looked up, it was a literally a shrine full of awards both by banks and the government. To sum it up, after todays trip to UTA's HQ, i feel even better about the investment we had made in UTA and the companies prospect in the near future. Pls find a link to my photo album below.

http://picasaweb.google.com/111866630635166816190/UTAJorn......

I had taken some photos but i couldnt get any of the HQ.

Best Regards,
Wai Lam

Well, as you can see the company doesnt look like fiction, they really exists, and they are angry with the recents comments attacking the company....as i say before this attacks are common in this chinese small caps, but this time in just 3 days the market value has been almost restored

Today the stock is trading at 4.5 just below before the attack but is a shame for the people who actually loose money here--

the only thing that the malicious article says that we think is for sure and is something to take a look is the online booking...thats look like need some work and explanation...but if you read carefully he says other things like dubios, fiction companym etc.....thats a way to create panic in the market... is good to always have some doubts, and we have it too, but thats not the way, that just a way to profits by mislead people....troubles and frauds are everywhere but first you have to prove it and make a good research about them, not just talk for yourself.....

we cant assure anything, this is the market and nothing is ever as you think, but here, we want to share some proofs of the company and a experience of someone who visit the company.

Well, thats my research, that was a real visit and photos from our friend Wai, and we really hope that the person who did the damage.....better not say anything...things get back to you..its karma...

the damage is done, now theres uncertainty in the market with these stock and we really hope that the company gets out of this one...
Best regards, and as always sorry for the language issues...

LEER MAS...

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

IT LOOKS LIKE ALMOST EVERYONE IS BEARISH....WHAT A GOOD SIGN...

Sebastian Toro

Economic uncertainty?.....thats true... Slowdown?--- true too--- recession? crisis? i dont think so... time to start buying stocks?.... i think that buffet has the word when he says: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful"

Look at the latest news and opinions posts! it looks like almost everyone is just fearful!

Just make a roundtrip and visit seeking alpha, bloomberg, cnbc, and other media and you will see a lot of opinions and blogs to be very bearish, almost everyone think that market is going down, and it looks like everyone have been selling the market and taking short positions...just take a look at the bonds market bubble and the amount of cash that the companys have not to mention the funds managers that are swimming in cash...

The most bearish kind are the economist....i also study economics and i have to ask everyone: have you ever seen a happy economist? have you ever seen a bullish economist? a economist that think that everything is ok and there is nothing to be done? and the most curious thing is that every one of them think that he have the cure for the problem but others are wrong...

Have you ever seen mr roubini optimistic? since i remember he is a permabear and always is announcing the doom and apocalypsis..of course sometimes is right...if for 100 year you say is gonna be a crisis, you cant miss! but, i think is more important to see opportunities that problems... just look at this chart:

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/breaking-news/economy/a-chart......

that what happen when you are a permabear!

Today roubini is again predicting the doom, as always, so thats has to be good sign.

But the bear sentiment in the market and specially in the media is a better sign, when the crowd thinks one thing, the market make the opposite.

Well today we have seen some data thats looks much better than expected, but thats not all, the economic data for the last few days have been raising in the last month despite a "horrible" slowdown in may,,,,,

if you take a look at the PMI, you can see a slowdon compared to the last readings, but if you take a look at the historic data from 2007 you will see that this indicator isnt that bad...is signaling expansion, is over 50 and is online with the historic average 60s levels just not sustainable.

If you look at the home prices, they didnt decline as expected, the consumer expending wasnt that bad, and is better that the last month,inflation and industrial production also pick up....so not everything looks that bad...

Theres a lot of uncertainty, Mr market will move with the data from the next days, but i think that the economy will get a little better compared to may, and the last quarter of the year will be good for stocks if the macro indicators help a little...the bearish sentiment and the lots of cash out the market are a good sign and in the worst case escenario the market can go to 980 (SYP) this year but, it will have nice end year rally.

Thats just my opinion, not recomendations made, i just like to be a contrarian investor, and also if you take a look at the recent economic data and compare to historic levels, you will see that everything is not that bad as says, and things are getting better, at a modest pace, but getting better.

BEst regards and excuses for the language issues!

LEER MAS...

Friday, August 27, 2010

CHINA SHUANGJI CEMENT, GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY FOR THE RISKY INVESTORS.

Today I wanted to do a little coverage on CHINA SHUANGJI CEMENT company quoted on the OTC market under the nemo CSGJ as we see here a very interesting opportunity for long-term investment for investors with a high risk profile and have a small portcentaje of participation in a diversified portfolio.

Before starting with the figures and recommendations is to be noted that it is a very small company, is a company dedicated to the production of cement in China and listed on the OTC market and with these characteristics has everything to be classified as high risk.

As I said, the company is engaged in cement production and currently produces around 1.5 million tonnes per year and by the end of this year a new is going operational to increase its production by 60% to 2.5 million tonnes.

Today was just released news that negatively impact the stock price to levels of 0.42 usd. the new was that one of their plants is in a 2000 list of companies that must improve or close some production lines due to contamination that is being generating and is part of a Chinese government program to improve environmentally.
Athough no dates have been said and it will be a long process. in the worst case the closure of this plant by 500,000 tons would impact the company's production is offset by the opening of the new plant that would raise the production in 1.000.000 tons and receive a monetary compensation.
(The company currently has four plants and the end of this year would come into operation one fifth)

The news in my opinion has been widely discounted by the market at current prices as the valuation metrics for this company are simply absurd, and while it may be classified as a "penny stock" and should look carefully, a participation in a portfolio of around 5% to 10% seems attractive as a risk exposure.

For today the company is listed under four times earnings (P / E of 3.5) and is listed at just 0.4 times its equity. These metrics have no sense, because the company has been with steady profits and this year with the opening of its new plant could increase profits by up to 50% to 7 million dollars and this way would be trading at only 2 times projected earnings (PE 2 FW)

The company currently has a demand greater than its estimated production capacity and that this trend will continue over the following years.


In 2009 sales were USD 54m, and for 2011 they expect this figure to increase to 96 million. The profits were about 4.4m by 2009 and expect to increase up to 7.5 million dollars in 2011

To give you an idea the company today have a market cap of just 12 million dollars, which is not at all consistent with an equity of 28m, 54m sales and 4.4m profits, and projected profits over 7m .. .. what we see here is a highly undervalue share.

This gives us the following ratios:
Price to sales: 0.22
Price to sales FW 2011: 0.12
Price to book: 0.42
PE: 3.1
FW PE 2011: 1.8

These metrics are obviously a gift, are extremely low multiples that merits them a look and although China has slowed a bit, still growing over 10% and the sector has a very good dynamics.

Hardly in the market are opportunities like these, where patience could double the investment, but you have to be aware of the risks.

In the coming months they will trigger more positive news for all, becasuse the opening of the new plant is almost ready and will come into operation and generate a strong increase in sales and profits.

Additional to this, the company, make a very positive spin for the administration. They have hired a new CFO who handles impeccably English, an expert on stock registration process in the American markets, and knowledgeable about American financial regulations with the SEC.
They have also hired new auditors and the law firm Sichenzia Ross Friedman Ference LLP, a firm with extensive experience in process listments of shares in NYSE and NASDAQ which is a future plan pointed by tje company.

Thus, despite the bad news spread today, we see these prices CSGJ an excellent opportunity to get very good returns.

This title is not a short-term investment, nor is it a trade title, much less to get a portfolio of 100% ... but it is very interesting option to have the risk exposure of a location in a portfolio of 5% or 10% depending on risk profile.

It is a very interesting opportunity for long-term investors, price target is now 1.2usd, which at these prices is a huge return (185% expected return), but so it is not a title suitable for people who can not wait a good time, with a risk profile or even as Warren Buffet would say: "Unless you can watch their investments fall by 50% with no urge to panic, you should not be in the stock market." and in this title if it is well possible to see this.


1.2usd target price (once is operating the new plant and analyzing their impact on results this price could be increased)


Harbinger has a price target 1.1usd
and the target price by invesbolsa is 1.3usd


Best regards and apologies for the language issues....
Sebastian Toro

LEER MAS...

NIVS INTELLIMEDIA....CHEAP, CHEAP, CHEAP!

Sometimes you just find the kind of stocks that really can give you some money....most of the time you look at the numbers and cant believe what you see, and a few years later the stocks going to the sky while the big players make some money and you dont.

NIVS INTELLIMEDIA (NIV) is just one of them.

At 2.6x times earnings, a guidance for the 2010 of 25 millions in earnings and a market value of 97 million this company is really a bargain.

The company shareholders equity is above 115 millions dollars, so now is below his book value and just 0.3x price to sales......

Beside that, the company sales grow at 89% last quarter and the earnings operational income grew at 70% percent in the six first months of 2010....

Earnings per share for the six months of 2010 were 0.27 usd, thats an increase of 71% over the 2009.

If still dont like that, the company just report that the new plant is operational this month, so in the next quarters we are going to see moreee growth on sales and earnings...

Some months ago, the company make a shares issue at 3.3 usd, and now it has 25 million in cash so its in a good financial condition,

Now the stock is trading at just 2.04 usd meanwhile the big players are getting in unnoticed in this stock...in the last months you can see big changes in the major holders, no insider is selling, no major holder is selling either, but about 4 million shares has been bought by institutional holders.....the herd is selling, the big player buying just like that...as always not everyone makes money in the market.

The consensus target price is 7 usd, so the upside potential is huge in this stock but it has been under the radar for quite some time

Is a very well managed company, their own brand is strengthening and now its a bigger revenue producer than the oem bussiness.

The last quarter is the best for their bussines and is getting closer....

This is the kind of stock to buy and let it sleep until it gets a real value, dont let it pass.

Good luck!

Sebastian Toro

LEER MAS...

Friday, January 22, 2010

SUPPORT LEVELS

Por: Sebastian Toro


Cerramos una semana en rojo.

Hace poco les había enviado un informe a mis clientes en el cual les hablaba de que el mercado se encontraba en sobrecompra y podríamos estar adportas de una corrección hasta el 1115 y el 1085 debido al extremo optimismo q veníamos observando.

Esta corrección se esta dando pero por otras causas diferentes y es el ruido y pánico que han generado los anuncios de obama de regular y prohibir la posición propia de los bancos.

Empecemos analizando la gráfica del SYP en la cual se ve que aun se mantiene vigente la tendencia alcista y que estamos llegando justamente a los soportes mencionados en el correo anterior y q coinciden con la directriz alcista principal y una antigua zona de soporte que se dio en noviembre.

Lleva el mercado bajando 3 días consecutivos con fuertes correcciones y podríamos tener un rebote en el nivel mencionado.

Por ahora es una simple corrección que es sana, lo que nos preocupa es el fundamental de fondo con los anuncios de obama y que tanto o poco puede afectar esto realmente o quizás si los republicanos no lo aprueban lo que también es muy probable.

Así que por ahora esperar que no se rompan los 1080 y 1085 del SYP.









Ahora mirando el Dow vemos que esto paro la caída justo en su directriz alcista en los 1070e incluso aun tiene otro soporte en 10.150

La caída fue tan fuerte que el RSI bajo a 34 mostrando fuerte sobreventa ya y una alta probabilidad de rebote, así mismo el volumen tan alto me da a pensar que la caída fue pánico y eso es buena cosa.





Saludos y buen trade

LEER MAS...

If the stock exchange speculation was so easy, there would no be miners, woodcutters and other workers in heavy labors. They all would be speculators.ANDRE KOSTOLANY

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