IT LOOKS LIKE ALMOST EVERYONE IS BEARISH....WHAT A GOOD SIGN...

Sebastian Toro

Economic uncertainty?.....thats true... Slowdown?--- true too--- recession? crisis? i dont think so... time to start buying stocks?.... i think that buffet has the word when he says: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful"

Look at the latest news and opinions posts! it looks like almost everyone is just fearful!

Just make a roundtrip and visit seeking alpha, bloomberg, cnbc, and other media and you will see a lot of opinions and blogs to be very bearish, almost everyone think that market is going down, and it looks like everyone have been selling the market and taking short positions...just take a look at the bonds market bubble and the amount of cash that the companys have not to mention the funds managers that are swimming in cash...

The most bearish kind are the economist....i also study economics and i have to ask everyone: have you ever seen a happy economist? have you ever seen a bullish economist? a economist that think that everything is ok and there is nothing to be done? and the most curious thing is that every one of them think that he have the cure for the problem but others are wrong...

Have you ever seen mr roubini optimistic? since i remember he is a permabear and always is announcing the doom and apocalypsis..of course sometimes is right...if for 100 year you say is gonna be a crisis, you cant miss! but, i think is more important to see opportunities that problems... just look at this chart:

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/breaking-news/economy/a-chart......

that what happen when you are a permabear!

Today roubini is again predicting the doom, as always, so thats has to be good sign.

But the bear sentiment in the market and specially in the media is a better sign, when the crowd thinks one thing, the market make the opposite.

Well today we have seen some data thats looks much better than expected, but thats not all, the economic data for the last few days have been raising in the last month despite a "horrible" slowdown in may,,,,,

if you take a look at the PMI, you can see a slowdon compared to the last readings, but if you take a look at the historic data from 2007 you will see that this indicator isnt that bad...is signaling expansion, is over 50 and is online with the historic average 60s levels just not sustainable.

If you look at the home prices, they didnt decline as expected, the consumer expending wasnt that bad, and is better that the last month,inflation and industrial production also pick up....so not everything looks that bad...

Theres a lot of uncertainty, Mr market will move with the data from the next days, but i think that the economy will get a little better compared to may, and the last quarter of the year will be good for stocks if the macro indicators help a little...the bearish sentiment and the lots of cash out the market are a good sign and in the worst case escenario the market can go to 980 (SYP) this year but, it will have nice end year rally.

Thats just my opinion, not recomendations made, i just like to be a contrarian investor, and also if you take a look at the recent economic data and compare to historic levels, you will see that everything is not that bad as says, and things are getting better, at a modest pace, but getting better.

BEst regards and excuses for the language issues!

LEER MAS...

Summary only...

CHINA SHUANGJI CEMENT, GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY FOR THE RISKY INVESTORS.

Today I wanted to do a little coverage on CHINA SHUANGJI CEMENT company quoted on the OTC market under the nemo CSGJ as we see here a very interesting opportunity for long-term investment for investors with a high risk profile and have a small portcentaje of participation in a diversified portfolio.

Before starting with the figures and recommendations is to be noted that it is a very small company, is a company dedicated to the production of cement in China and listed on the OTC market and with these characteristics has everything to be classified as high risk.

As I said, the company is engaged in cement production and currently produces around 1.5 million tonnes per year and by the end of this year a new is going operational to increase its production by 60% to 2.5 million tonnes.

Today was just released news that negatively impact the stock price to levels of 0.42 usd. the new was that one of their plants is in a 2000 list of companies that must improve or close some production lines due to contamination that is being generating and is part of a Chinese government program to improve environmentally.
Athough no dates have been said and it will be a long process. in the worst case the closure of this plant by 500,000 tons would impact the company's production is offset by the opening of the new plant that would raise the production in 1.000.000 tons and receive a monetary compensation.
(The company currently has four plants and the end of this year would come into operation one fifth)

The news in my opinion has been widely discounted by the market at current prices as the valuation metrics for this company are simply absurd, and while it may be classified as a "penny stock" and should look carefully, a participation in a portfolio of around 5% to 10% seems attractive as a risk exposure.

For today the company is listed under four times earnings (P / E of 3.5) and is listed at just 0.4 times its equity. These metrics have no sense, because the company has been with steady profits and this year with the opening of its new plant could increase profits by up to 50% to 7 million dollars and this way would be trading at only 2 times projected earnings (PE 2 FW)

The company currently has a demand greater than its estimated production capacity and that this trend will continue over the following years.


In 2009 sales were USD 54m, and for 2011 they expect this figure to increase to 96 million. The profits were about 4.4m by 2009 and expect to increase up to 7.5 million dollars in 2011

To give you an idea the company today have a market cap of just 12 million dollars, which is not at all consistent with an equity of 28m, 54m sales and 4.4m profits, and projected profits over 7m .. .. what we see here is a highly undervalue share.

This gives us the following ratios:
Price to sales: 0.22
Price to sales FW 2011: 0.12
Price to book: 0.42
PE: 3.1
FW PE 2011: 1.8

These metrics are obviously a gift, are extremely low multiples that merits them a look and although China has slowed a bit, still growing over 10% and the sector has a very good dynamics.

Hardly in the market are opportunities like these, where patience could double the investment, but you have to be aware of the risks.

In the coming months they will trigger more positive news for all, becasuse the opening of the new plant is almost ready and will come into operation and generate a strong increase in sales and profits.

Additional to this, the company, make a very positive spin for the administration. They have hired a new CFO who handles impeccably English, an expert on stock registration process in the American markets, and knowledgeable about American financial regulations with the SEC.
They have also hired new auditors and the law firm Sichenzia Ross Friedman Ference LLP, a firm with extensive experience in process listments of shares in NYSE and NASDAQ which is a future plan pointed by tje company.

Thus, despite the bad news spread today, we see these prices CSGJ an excellent opportunity to get very good returns.

This title is not a short-term investment, nor is it a trade title, much less to get a portfolio of 100% ... but it is very interesting option to have the risk exposure of a location in a portfolio of 5% or 10% depending on risk profile.

It is a very interesting opportunity for long-term investors, price target is now 1.2usd, which at these prices is a huge return (185% expected return), but so it is not a title suitable for people who can not wait a good time, with a risk profile or even as Warren Buffet would say: "Unless you can watch their investments fall by 50% with no urge to panic, you should not be in the stock market." and in this title if it is well possible to see this.


1.2usd target price (once is operating the new plant and analyzing their impact on results this price could be increased)


Harbinger has a price target 1.1usd
and the target price by invesbolsa is 1.3usd


Best regards and apologies for the language issues....
Sebastian Toro

LEER MAS...

Summary only...

NIVS INTELLIMEDIA....CHEAP, CHEAP, CHEAP!

Sometimes you just find the kind of stocks that really can give you some money....most of the time you look at the numbers and cant believe what you see, and a few years later the stocks going to the sky while the big players make some money and you dont.

NIVS INTELLIMEDIA (NIV) is just one of them.

At 2.6x times earnings, a guidance for the 2010 of 25 millions in earnings and a market value of 97 million this company is really a bargain.

The company shareholders equity is above 115 millions dollars, so now is below his book value and just 0.3x price to sales......

Beside that, the company sales grow at 89% last quarter and the earnings operational income grew at 70% percent in the six first months of 2010....

Earnings per share for the six months of 2010 were 0.27 usd, thats an increase of 71% over the 2009.

If still dont like that, the company just report that the new plant is operational this month, so in the next quarters we are going to see moreee growth on sales and earnings...

Some months ago, the company make a shares issue at 3.3 usd, and now it has 25 million in cash so its in a good financial condition,

Now the stock is trading at just 2.04 usd meanwhile the big players are getting in unnoticed in this stock...in the last months you can see big changes in the major holders, no insider is selling, no major holder is selling either, but about 4 million shares has been bought by institutional holders.....the herd is selling, the big player buying just like that...as always not everyone makes money in the market.

The consensus target price is 7 usd, so the upside potential is huge in this stock but it has been under the radar for quite some time

Is a very well managed company, their own brand is strengthening and now its a bigger revenue producer than the oem bussiness.

The last quarter is the best for their bussines and is getting closer....

This is the kind of stock to buy and let it sleep until it gets a real value, dont let it pass.

Good luck!

Sebastian Toro

LEER MAS...

Summary only...